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Politics Divided

2 weeks ago Declan Recurring Article

It's that time again, and this time I will admit to being late on the latest edition, despite it being a turbulent few weeks for politics as always!

For better, or for worse, I'm in a bit of a crunch season right now with my dissertation, but I promise once that's over you'll see a much more regular pattern of Politics Divided, and some exciting stuff I've got in the works in the near future! So keep your eyes out for that.

But without further ado; let's jump right in.

Karl Turner removed from Labour Party

One of the more interesting pieces of news to come out during the previous couple of weeks was the news that Labour MP for Kingston Upon Hull East, a seat once held by the late former Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, has had his Labour whip removed, and for the forseeable future will sit within the House of Commons as an independent member of parliament.

Karl Turner | Source: BBC

For those of you who may not be familiar with the technical jargon often used within the world of British politics, because trust me it can be perhaps the most confusing and traditional parliament at times, the whip refers to being able to represent a party, and thus having it removed, or withdrawn from an MP during their term is effectively expelling them from the party.

Kingston Upon Hull East has, for many years remained a key Labour stronghold; however, this has been on a decline since around 2015, when rising tensions over Brexit and the Leave campaign led to many long-term voters of the UK Labour Party switching to countries which would aim to cut ties with the European Union. Hull on a wider scale, such as the other constituencies such as Kingston Upon Hull North, and Kingston Upon Hull West & Haltemprice have seen a similar trajectory shifting towards the right wing vote, likely due to the tensions during the 1970s in relation to fishing rights which led to the downfall of the fishing economy.

Previous Election Results in Hull East | Source: Me

Karl Turner's removal from the Labour Party comes after he raised public opposition to Government policy relating to the removal of jury trials unless the minimum sentencing exceeds 3 years, replacing them with a 'swift court' choice, aiming to tackle the growing backlogs in Crown Courts across England and Wales, through a 'judge only decision'. The idea of this stems from the Leveson report, which would reduce the case times by approximately 20%.

A traditional court room layout with a Jury | Source: BBC

Turner has previously gone on the record to state that he is happy to stand aside should he be permanently removed from the Labour party leading to a by-election, should this by-election occur, using Nowcast forecasts and polling from the latest Westminster voting intention, through Electoral Calculus, as shown in the image below, if this by-election were to happen, it'd mark the first time since 1931 in which the seat was won by a party other than Labour, with Reform winning in this forecast by a margin of around 28.1%.

Hull East Election Forecast | Source: Me

Although Electoral Calculus and the tools associated with nowcasting for seats is often accurate at providing an estimate, it is key to note that when a by-election does take place, these often have results which may not map entirely well across the United Kingdom, and thus can't produce a result which would provide information or hints towards the next government. A good example of this is the Rochdale 2024 By-Election, in which George Galloway's party, the Worker's party overturned a 20.4% Labour Majority due to the dissatisfaction with Labour's policy regarding Gaza.

Former MP George Galloway | Source: The Spectator

For the next bit of this article, I want to discuss a recent resolution which was proposed within the House of Representatives in the USA. With growing dissatisfaction with the 45h and 47th President, including dissatisfaction with his recent statements on Truth Social regarding the situation involving Iran, where the President said:

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have a Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionary wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?"

- Donald J. Trump on Truth Social on April 7th 2026, hours before a temporary 2 week ceasefire with Iran was agreed.

House Resolution 939 aims to impeach Donald J. Trump, the President of the United States for both high crimes and misdemeanors, quoting a few important things, involving an abuse of the Presidential power by calling for the execution of members of congress, having previously called for the executions of six Democratic lawmakers, in a social media post, the President stated that they should be hung for carrying out illegal orders, and thus not protecting and defending the constitution as they're sworn to do.

Members of Congress voting on the 2019 Impeachment | Source: House of Representatives

This would not be the first time the President has been subject to an impeachment by Congress, having been previously impeached in both 2019 and 2021. Within the 2019 Impeachment, it was accused that Trump had solicited foreign interference in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Bid from Ukraine, in an attempt to bolster support and aim to be re-elected over Joe Biden. This did not pass; the full results are visible below.

Whilst in the 2021 Impeachment, having been out of office for just over a year by this point for just over a month, it is accused that Donald Trump had incited the January 6 Riots, which aimed to prevent Mike Pence from verifying the Electoral College vote counts, and overturn the election of Joe Biden to the presidency.

Vote Counts for 2019 and 2024 Impeachments | Source: Me

If House Resolution 939 were to pass the House, it would make President Trump, the first president to be impeached three times, this would also begin the Senate trial, in the event that this passes, it would lead to President Trump being removed from the Presidency, further to this the Senate could hold a further vote to bar him from holding future offices of power within the United States.

It is key to note though, in 2025 Representative Al Green filed similar resolutions, although they did not advance, meaning that despite the fact that House Resolution 939 seeks to remove President Trump from the White House, the trial and process which needs to take place is both incredibly long and convoluted. Of course, should this resolution proceed into the House, I will look to ensure that this is covered within Politics Divided.

Now for the section we've all been waiting for and the one I promised in the last edition, the Global Brief, within this section of this article, I will aim to look at more global affairs, often focusing on areas which maybe don't receive the coverage they deserve.. possibly due to how niche they can be at times.

Location of Alberta | Source: Wikimedia

One of the big articles coming out during the previous few weeks has been the rise of the Alberta Separtism, an area of Canada seeking to gain independence. Earlier this year, on January 3, Alberta's Chief Electoral Officer issued a citizen initiative petition allowing for a constitutional referendum to take place should a sufficient number of signatories be reached (this being 177,732) by May 2, 2026.

If a sufficient number of signatures are reached, than every eligible voter in Alberta will have the opportunity to vote on a proposed constitutional question, this being "Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be part of Canada to become an independent state.". This wouldn't be the first time a Canadian territory has seeked independence, with Quebec holding a similar referendum in 1995 as well as in 1980.

Quebec Independence Referendum vote results in 1995 | Source: Me

I spoke with Owen, one of our Station Managers, and long-term Alberta resident to understand his opinions on this matter.

Declan > You may have read about Alberta independence, and the rise of the Alberta separatist movement, as you may (or may not) be aware, there is currently a petition requiring 177k signatures which if reached, would lead to a referendum surrounding whether Alberta should become an independent province and thus cease to be part of Canada. What is your opinion on this?

Owen > Well, Danielle Smith can keep trying, it's been her end goal for years now, but it's illegal. Without the commitment from our First Nations, under Treaties 6, 7 and 8. Danielle Smith can't legally take Alberta out of Canada, it's not hers to take. The majority of Alberta is protected by these Treaties, which are owned by the Indigenous. She's literally committing a crime.

We would go from a civil agreement to an out right war with our own people, that we've had a strong and calm relationship with for decades.

I would move. I am not going to be ripped from my citizenship and become separated from Canada, it won't be beneficial for us, it'll literally make all our prices go up even more, Alberta will be unlivable, and Danielle Smith will have even more control of Alberta, which will be chaos, she's already dull to the brain, she's one of the most hated province leaders out of everyone. Trying to cut pension and take away LGBTQ+ rights for surgeries, and medicine.

But realistically, it won't happen. She's had post-votes for it, and less than 10% said "yes".

Declan > So what would a legally valid process for Alberta separating (if any exists) actually look like?

Owen > She would have to go to the Crown, and talk with the Indigenous leaders, and ask for permission first, which will be denied, because by law, within legal right, Alberta cannot leave Canada, it would be breaking the treaties, and it's unlawful. We'd be breaking our relationship with the British and that is one of the most stupid things we could ever do. We'd have to start all over, because we wouldn't have the protection anymore, especially with NATO, we'd have to find our traders for our wood/metal/oil because we won't have that same relationships with different countries like we did while in Canada, it would be literally killing Alberta.

Sadly, that's all we have time for this week (until next edition), if you have any topics to suggest or anything similar which you'd like to see me cover, shoot me a message of leave a comment and I'll do a bit of research! Hope you enjoyed this (lengthy) read, and be sure to let me know your thoughts below!